Vitt, Pati , Kendall, Bruce , Havens, Kayri .
An Ex Situ Approach to Managing Species Range Shifts Under Climate Change: Refuge in a bottle.
THE rate at which climate change is predicted to affect the distribution and composition of biomes is likely to outpace the natural migration rate of most plant species. In addition, the spatial pattern of biotically suitable habitats is likely to further reduce the dispersal ability of many species. This may be particularly true for endangered and threatened species which have few, small populations, and generally either stable or declining intrinsic rates of population growth. We will explore the potential impact of climate change on rare plants, as well as the habitats which support them. And we highlight data quality issues that may hamper our ability to predict range shifts of rare species under climate change using current climate envelope models. Our interest is combining predictions of changing temperature and rainfall, spatially explicit data on current species distributions, land-use maps, and local demographic models of population behavior to predict the fate and migration success of rare plant species, and we are using a sister-species pair Platanthera praeclara and P. leucophaea as our model. Our objective is to determine whether existing natural areas are adequate to protect species under climate change. We will conclude with an evaluation of management inputs such as seed banking and human-mediated propagule movement, and discuss how these can be used to achieve functional communities into the future.
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1 - Institute for Plant Conservation, Chicago Botanic Garden, 1000 Lake Cook Road, Glencoe, Illinois, 60022, USA
2 - Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Bren Hall 4514, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, 93106-5131, USA
species range shifts
Presentation Type: Oral Paper:Papers for Topics
Date: Tuesday, August 1st, 2006
Time: 11:15 AM